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  1. At the moment, ‘only’ one in three economists are predicting recession. Place your bets?

    “As a result, the most likely outcome is that [U.S.] economic growth will continue, but at a pace close to 2% in the second half of the year and in early 2008. We’re not alone with this assessment. The latest Wall Street Journal survey of 52 economic forecasts put the odds of a recession within the next 12 months at 36%, up from slightly above 25% prior to the financial developments in August. So, the balance of opinion is that there is a close to 2-in-3 odds that the outcome will be the continuation of sub-par, or modest, economic growth.” – Commentary from TD Economics last friday.

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